Manchester United visit in-form Atletico Madrid with a thin squad and no wins in four matches across all competitions.
Manchester United (4.10) travel to the Metropolitano on Tuesday for matchday two of the Champions League group stage. Michael Carrick’s side has never beaten Atletico Madrid (1.87) in four competitive meetings.
Two Teams, Opposite Directions
Atletico have won four straight La Liga matches after losing 2-1 at Liverpool (1.31) on matchday one. Those wins included a 2-1 derby victory over Real Madrid (1.92) and a 2-1 win over Alaves (3.55) on Saturday.
Alejandro Grimaldo scored the opener in both matches and has three goals in his last four games. Cristian Romero, the former Tottenham defender, scored the late winner against Alaves.
United beat Sabah 4-0 on matchday one but have not won since. They drew 1-1 with 10-man Tottenham (1.48) at the weekend after conceding in the 92nd minute. They have only six points from six Premier League games, their worst start since 1986. Boos rang out around Old Trafford after the final whistle.
United’s Injury Crisis Shapes The Plan
Carrick must rebuild his side without several key players. Luke Shaw and Kobbie Mainoo did not travel after picking up knocks against Tottenham. Patrick Dorgu, Noussair Mazraoui, Manuel Ugarte and Benjamin Sesko are all unavailable.
Matthijs de Ligt has travelled after a long spell out. Youri Tielemans and Carlos Baleba could form the midfield pair behind Bruno Fernandes in a 4-2-3-1. Bryan Mbeumo may play centrally with Sesko missing. Matheus Cunha could also start against the club he represented 54 times.
Carrick may need youngsters such as Shea Lacey, Harry Amass and Jack Fletcher on the bench. The main question is whether United can play through a compact midfield without leaving gaps behind them.
How Simeone Will Attack
Diego Simeone has a fully fit squad, and he is expected to use a 4-4-2. Two tight lines without the ball make Atletico hard to break down. The wide midfielders can tuck inside, which frees the full-backs to push forward.
Two strikers give Atletico direct targets for quick attacks through the middle. Julian Alvarez has 17 goals in 26 Champions League games for Atletico, including 10 in 13 at home. Jonathan David and Alexander Sorloth, who are both back from injury, compete with him for places.
Lee Kang-in and Alex Baena offer creativity between the lines. Atletico will target the space around United’s makeshift full-backs. Atletico have conceded in 14 of their last 15 European home games, so United may find chances on the counter.
Records And Prediction
United have lost only one of their last 11 matches against Spanish clubs. Atletico have won only two of their last 15 against English teams. They have also never won a Champions League group or league-phase game against an English club. Opta’s supercomputer gives Atletico a 46% chance of victory, United 29.7% and a draw 24.3%. Swedish referee Glenn Nyberg takes charge of the match.
United lost 1-0 at Old Trafford in the 2021-22 round of 16 after a 1-1 draw in Madrid. Atletico also scored before half-time in 11 of their last 12 home league-phase or group games. Expect a tight first half before Atletico’s quality tells in the second.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Manchester United.
