Manchester City have been quickest out of the blocks in the Premier League title race, but Arsenal represent the best value for money. The margins between the two are small and City could potentially face a major points deduction.
Manchester City are priced as odds-on favourites for the Premier League title at 1.90 at the time of writing, but ahead of their Sunday clash with Arsenal, it is the Gunners who offer better value for money for the title at 3.00.
City is still the best soccer team in the league with Erling Haaland banging in the goals from all angles. However, there is an elephant in the room, a crucial factor that could significantly influence the title race — or rather, 130 elephants.
That is how many legal battles City are currently facing. The Premier League initially announced that they were facing charges for 115 breaches of its financial rules, although it ultimately emerged that they are actually facing 130 charges.
Soccer finance expert Kieran Maguire said on TalkSport that he expects the case to drag out for three to four months before a verdict, but ultimately, he predicts a 60-100 point deduction for City if they are found guilty of all charges to serve as a deterrent for any club looking to cook their books in future.
It will not, however, take a 60-100 point deduction to impact the title race. City pipped Arsenal to the title by five points in 2022/23 and two in 2023/24.
There is, of course, no guarantee City will be found guilty and no guarantee their punishment will impact their 2024/25 season at this point. However, while there are no odds on the case itself, the comments of experts such as Maguire seem to suggest a guilty verdict and a points deduction before the end of the season are the likely outcomes.
Certainly, betting on City winning the title is not a risk worth taking at the moment, and the question then becomes one regarding who is best placed to beat them.
Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have shown quite clearly in their first few matches that they are not complete squads. Liverpool have looked brilliant at times and cannot be written off even with the odds against them at 9.03 at the time of writing, but their 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest exposed the work that still needs to be done for the players to fully grasp the soccer Arne Slot wants them to play.
That leaves Arsenal as the clear favourite to challenge City for the title – and to win it if Pep Guardiola’s side indeed gets hit with a substantial points deduction.
The only points the Gunners have dropped this season came in their 1-1 draw with Brighton & Hove Albion with 10 men. Declan Rice was controversially sent off with Mikel Arteta’s men leading 1-0 and then João Pedro subsequently equalised.
The Gunners have only themselves to blame for that draw even despite the soft red card for Rice, but that appeared to be a blip rather than a fundamental problem with the way they play.
They will likely be hot on City’s heels this season at the very least even without a points deduction and could even pip them to the title, but if this season’s race is effectively decided in the boardroom, the trophy will likely head to the Emirates Stadium.
