The Springboks have dominated World Rugby over the last five years, surprising the world by winning the 2019 World Cup under Rassie Erasmus after being in the doldrums only two years prior. After they repeated the feat in the 2023 World Cup, it is now difficult to imagine who could stop them in 2027, but there are some contenders who are in with a chance.
France, New Zealand, Ireland and England have all been at or near the top of world rugby at various points in recent years.
However, it appears that the chances of New Zealand and France mounting a serious challenge in years to come is particularly strong relative to their rivals.
1. France (6.00)
- Strengths: France is a major threat with a young, dynamic squad and an impressive youth rugby structure underlying it. They have won three of the last four World Rugby U20 Championships, losing the final of the last to England. Key players like Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack offer flair and skill, supported by a solid forward pack. Hosting the 2023 Rugby World Cup has bolstered their infrastructure and depth, and Fabien Galthié has modernised their game. France are comfortable without the ball in the modern era and ruthlessly effective with it.
- Weaknesses: Pressure during key moments can be a challenge, as seen in past World Cups. The French flair sometimes comes at the cost of discipline, and they’ll need to avoid inconsistency.
- Chances: Strong, especially if they maintain their balance between physicality and creativity. If they harness home-grown talent effectively, they can challenge South Africa across competitions.
2. New Zealand (3.50)
- Strengths: Despite recent struggles, the All Blacks remain a perennial powerhouse. Their expansive playing style, depth, and development systems are unmatched, and they have the ability to quickly rebuild after a dip in form. Key players like Ardie Savea and the Barrett brothers offer leadership, and they always have a new generation of talent coming through due to being a nation that prides itself on rugby like no other.
- Weaknesses: New Zealand’s vulnerability lies in their inability to dominate physically against South Africa’s powerful pack. Recent losses against the Springboks in the Rugby Championship highlight this. With a population size of just over five million, New Zealand are trying to catch a country which is home to around 60 million people even as South Africa’s rugby talent pipelines spread to poorer communities. The end of the Super Rugby era means the All Blacks will have limited exposure to their rivals, the Springboks, even though they are attempting to counter it with lengthened tours of South Africa (and vice-versa).
- Chances: They are well-positioned, but their key challenge will be matching the Springboks physically, especially in the forward exchanges.
3. Ireland (6.00)
- Strengths: Ireland’s rise to the top of the world rankings before last year’s World Cup was backed by an experienced squad led by Jonathan Sexton and players from successful provincial teams like Leinster. Their structured, well-drilled approach under Andy Farrell has made them formidable.
- Weaknesses: Ireland have yet to perform consistently in knockout stages of major tournaments, often peaking during regular cycles but faltering at the World Cup. Sexton’s retirement leaves a leadership gap, and a new playmaker will need to step up. Like the All Blacks, Ireland is a small country even apart from being divided in two, with around 2 million people living in Northern Ireland and just over 5 million living in the Republic of Ireland.
- Chances: Ireland is a serious challenger if they can break the Rugby World Cup curse and continue evolving tactically. However, the post-Sexton era will test their resilience.
4. England (9.00)
- Strengths: England has the financial resources and depth in player talent to build world-beating teams and they have strong grassroots programs. Steve Borthwick’s squad is physically imposing and excels in set-pieces. England’s victory over New Zealand in the 2019 World Cup semifinal showed they can dominate the best on their day and they pushed eventual champions the Springboks close in 2023 at the same stage.
- Weaknesses: The team has struggled for consistency since 2019, especially in their attacking game. Finding their next playmaking star and addressing tactical rigidity will be key as Owen Farrell prepares to take a break from international rugby at the age of 32.
- Chances: England has the potential, but they need to rebuild with a clearer identity and dynamic attacking play. Their forward dominance must be paired with more creativity if they are to dethrone South Africa.
Verdict:
South Africa will be difficult to dethrone under Erasmus’ astute leadership, but France and New Zealand appear best positioned to challenge their dominance. France’s flair and depth, along with New Zealand’s unmatched rugby tradition, make them leading contenders. Ireland and England have the potential but will need to address key weaknesses in leadership and consistency to compete at the highest level.
