South Africa targets the scrum, the air and the final quarter as it looks to seize control of the series in Soweto.
South Africa (1.35) and New Zealand (3.35) meet again on Saturday with the series locked at 1-1. Victory at FNB Stadium would leave the winner unable to lose the four-Test series outright.
The Scrum Battle Remains Firmly South Africa’s
New Zealand coach Dave Rennie has complained repeatedly about South Africa’s scrummaging tactics since the second Test. He accused the Springboks of “walking around” during last weekend’s contest in Cape Town.
Rassie Erasmus and scrum coach Daan Human have both firmly denied those claims this week: “I am a farmer. I am a normal, straight guy. I never coach that,” Human said.
Regardless of the rhetoric, the numbers tell a clear story from the opening two matches. New Zealand struggled badly at scrum time in both Johannesburg and Cape Town so far.
South Africa’s front row dominance has looked consistent no matter which combination Erasmus selects. Eben Etzebeth also stole three New Zealand lineout throws last weekend, including one near the try line.
New Zealand Continues To Struggle Under The High Ball
New Zealand’s issues fielding high kicks appeared even before facing South Africa on this tour. Their opening match against the Stormers already exposed problems dealing with contestable kicks. Those struggles have only worsened across the first two Tests against the Springboks.
South Africa’s short, high-kicking game has repeatedly troubled the All Blacks’ back three. New Zealand’s wingers have generally dropped back to field those kicks under pressure. Their failure to adapt across two matches makes a sudden turnaround unlikely this weekend.
All Blacks Back Themselves Late, But History Favours Altitude
New Zealand remains confident in its ability to control matches during the closing quarter. That belief comes from history, including a nervy finish in Cape Town last weekend. Ardie Savea’s 77th-minute try nearly snatched victory before South Africa held on.
New Zealand also has strong recent form at altitude, winning eight of their last ten Tests there. That record includes both of their previous visits to FNB Stadium in Johannesburg.
South Africa, though, showed similar qualities during their July win over Scotland at altitude. The Springboks scored twice in the third quarter that day after a tense halftime deadlock. Building scoreboard pressure early remains a far safer approach than chasing points late.
Erasmus Continues To Unsettle Visitors’ Preparation
South Africa’s late team changes ahead of the second Test caught New Zealand completely off guard. Erasmus switched his entire front row less than an hour before kickoff that weekend. Rennie admitted before the series he expected some surprises from his South African counterpart.
New Zealand’s own response, a legal tackle technique to win turnovers, provided their only real surprise so far. There remains genuine uncertainty about whether Erasmus will spring another late change this weekend. That uncertainty alone appears to be affecting New Zealand’s preparation heading into Saturday’s crucial contest.
Whatever unfolds, South Africa has clearly gotten inside New Zealand’s head throughout this series. With home advantage and momentum built across four key areas, the Springboks head into Saturday with genuine belief. A win would set up a series-clinching opportunity in Baltimore next weekend.
Prediction And Betting Odds
South Africa enters Saturday’s contest as clear favourites among bookmakers this week. Easybet makes the Springboks 7.5-point favourites for the crucial clash in Soweto. To win the match outright, South Africa is priced at 7/20, with New Zealand at 24/10.
The handicap market has South Africa at -7.5 points, priced at 9/10. Recent history between the sides has been extremely tight across their last two meetings. New Zealand won the series opener 33-16, before South Africa responded with a 33-26 win in Cape Town.
Prediction: The Springboks to win by seven points, setting up a series-clinching chance in Baltimore.
