Being at the top of the Premier League at Christmas is seen as a good omen. Many believe it predicts the season’s eventual champion.
However, this is not always the case. History shows that league leaders can falter after Christmas. Easybet breaks down the trends in the Premier League and how Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City challenged conventional wisdom surrounding Christmas.
Premier League Trends Since 1992/93
The Premier League began in 1992/93. In 16 out of 32 seasons, the Christmas leaders won the league. That means a 50% success rate for teams leading at Christmas. The odds are good, but not guaranteed.
Beware Manchester City
Manchester City (3.17) have certainly challenged conventional wisdom in recent seasons if indeed the myth still prevailed that being top at Christmas guaranteed success. City have won the league in six of the last seven seasons. However, in that time, they have only led at Christmas twice. Pep Guardiola’s men led at Christmas in 2017/18 en route to getting a record 100 points. They also led at Christmas in 2021/22.
In 2018/19 and 2020/21, City surpassed Liverpool after the Reds led the Premier League at Christmas. Liverpool (2.19) did, however, manage to hold their Christmas lead in 2019/20.
In the last two seasons, City has surpassed Arsenal (4.29) after the Gunners led the Premier League on Christmas. As of now, City is currently trailing Liverpool in the race for the title. The Reds have a new head coach, Arne Slot, but players who were active under Jürgen Klopp will know all too well that the title is far from won.
