Wales host Japan at the Principality Stadium on Saturday, with Eddie Jones chasing a first Brave Blossoms win in Cardiff.
Wales (1.17) host Japan (5.20) on Saturday as both sides try to build after patchy campaigns. Eddie Jones’s team have never won at the Principality Stadium, but they have improved under him.
Wales Look For Stability
Steve Tandy’s side finished bottom of the Six Nations again. They lost to England 48-7, France 54-12, Scotland 26-23 and Ireland 27-17. Their only win came against Italy, 31-17, in the final round.
The Nations Championship has been mixed. Wales beat Fiji 39-24 but lost 35-21 to Argentina and 43-0 to South Africa. They sit fifth in the north with five points. Australia and New Zealand follow in consecutive weeks, so this match is vital.
Tandy has picked Max Llewellyn and Eddie James as his centres. Both are big ball carriers. Louis Rees-Zammit has yet to find his best form after his NFL spell. However, Sam Costelow, captain Dewi Lake, Alex Mann and Jac Morgan add experience.
Japan’s Fresh Faces
Japan have made strides under Jones. They beat Italy 27-10 in their opening game but lost 36-20 to Ireland and 42-15 to France. They then won the Pacific Nations Cup, beating the USA 63-14 in the semi-final and Fiji 20-15 in the final.
However, Fiji beat them 34-28 in Tokyo last month, in Jake White’s first match as coach. Jones has responded with changes. Riku Kitahara makes his debut at flyhalf, and he will face a baptism of fire.
Captain Warner Dearns leads the pack, while Jack Cornelsen offers power. Out wide, Kippei Ishida brings explosive pace. Jones has also made clear that history motivates his team.
A One-Sided Series
Wales have won seven of the nine meetings between the sides. They edged the most recent clash 24-23, so Japan have come close. Japan have never beaten Wales in Cardiff.
That record adds pressure to the visitors, but Wales also face expectation. Their supporters want evidence of progress. A loss to Japan would deepen concerns before the Australia and New Zealand games.
Verdict
Wales should control the territory with their stronger pack. Kitahara’s debut also gives them a target. However, Japan’s speed and willingness to play will create chances.
We expect Wales to win a tight, fast game. A margin of about seven points looks likely, although Japan can cause an upset.
