A patched-up Wallabies backline faces an All Blacks side that won 50-19 at Eden Park a week ago in Auckland.
Australia (3.85) host New Zealand (1.27) at Accor Stadium on Saturday with the Bledisloe Cup already locked away in Auckland. The Wallabies play for pride in their last home Test of 2026, while the All Blacks chase a 13th straight win.
Australia Reshuffle Again After Injuries
Les Kiss has made four changes to the side that lost at Eden Park. Flyhalf Ben Donaldson felt his kicking leg on Thursday morning and missed training.
Declan Meredith therefore starts at number 10 for just his fourth cap. He becomes the seventh different Wallaby flyhalf in 17 Tests. Carter Gordon and Tom Lynagh also remain sidelined.
Kiss spoke warmly about his replacement: “He takes the line on, good kicking game, very solid defender,” the coach said.
Uncapped Harry McLaughlin-Phillips sits on the bench and could become Wallaby number 1001. Len Ikitau misses out after a concussion, so Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii moves to outside centre.
Isaac Henry takes the inside centre spot, and Harry Potter starts on the left wing. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto earns his 50th cap, and Aidan Ross and Josh Nasser join Allan Alaalatoa in a reshaped front row.
The Aerial Battle Will Set The Territory
The kicking contest decided much of last week’s match. Dave Rennie estimates that only about one contestable kick in four is caught cleanly. New Zealand chased hard in Auckland and won most of the 50/50 balls. Will Jordan’s track-back also started the move for one of the seven tries.
Rennie has picked Josh Moorby over Rieko Ioane to replace the injured Leroy Carter on the wing. He expects Australia to kick shorter and more contestable balls this week. Suaalii’s move to centre also removes a strong high-ball option from the Wallaby back three.
Potter, Max Jorgensen and Tom Wright must now handle that workload. A bit of rain could make the surface greasy and punish handling errors. Whichever side wins the air will control where the match is played.
The Breakdown And The Second-Half Problem
Australia trailed only 17-14 at the interval in Auckland. New Zealand then won the second half 33-5 and scored seven tries to three. Flanker Fraser McReight made a heavy tackle load and rarely reached the breakdown.
Kiss will rely on McReight and replacement Carlo Tizzano to slow the All Blacks’ ball. That plan only works if the Wallaby tacklers stop the carriers at the gainline first. The visitors also scored first in all of their last five Tests. Australia have won the race to 10 points just once in that stretch.
The same collapse hit them in Perth, where they led South Africa by 25 points before losing control. Kiss has loaded his bench with Angus Bell, Josh Canham, Tizzano and Kalani Thomas. He wants them on the field before the 55th minute.
Set Piece And Prediction
New Zealand have injury worries of their own. Carter (ankle), Anton Segner and Asafo Aumua (concussion) and Ethan Blackadder (calf) all stayed home. Richie Mo’unga is also out with a calf problem.
Rennie made only three changes to his starting side. Fabian Holland returns at lock, George Bower starts at loosehead, and Scott Barrett passed his fitness check. Du’Plessis Kirifi and Timoci Tavatavanawai add breakdown steal threat from the bench.
Australia hurt New Zealand through the maul last week, and Nasser scored from one. But they have not beaten the All Blacks since Brisbane in November 2020. They have not done it in Sydney since 2015.
Bookmakers make New Zealand 8.5-point favourites. Expect a braver Wallaby start, but the All Blacks’ bench and kicking game should again decide it.
Prediction: All Blacks by 16 points.
